Wisconsin GOP’s Proposed Reform is Riddled with Loopholes; Would Enable More Extreme Gerrymanders

From: John Bisognano
To: Interested Parties
Date: October 4, 2023

Republicans in the Wisconsin legislature recently introduced a piece of legislation that purports to reform the state’s redistricting process. But make no mistake, this is nothing more than another gerrymandering scheme to maximize an illegitimate partisan advantage.

Over the last several years engaging with redistricting commissions across the country, and with advocates exploring new reforms in their states, one thing has become crystal clear: Not all redistricting reforms are created equal. When it comes to a fair redistricting reform or design of a redistricting commission, the devil truly is in the details. Unfortunately, the reform currently being pursued by Republicans in Wisconsin is riddled with loopholes that would allow politicians to abuse the process and continue to enact extreme gerrymanders.

The bill has several significant weaknesses, including:

(1) AB 415 keeps mapdrawing in the hands of politicians with a strong history of gerrymandering;

(2) AB 415 has weak mapping criteria that would allow the enactment of extreme gerrymanders — including Republican near-supermajorities in the legislature; and

(3) AB 415 lacks any fallback measures in the event the legislature fails to pass maps.

The fact of the matter is, AB 415 simply will not stop Republicans in Wisconsin’s legislature from enacting a partisan gerrymander that would continue to lock in unearned political power for their own party, while silencing and sidelining everyone else. The following memorandum, including a demonstrative map that exhibits the biased mapmaking that could still result from a redistricting process under AB 415, sets out in more detail our concerns.

AB 415 Keeps Mapdrawing in the Hands of Politicians with a Strong History of Gerrymandering

The redistricting process proposed under AB 415 will still give politicians ultimate map drawing authority — the same politicians who constructed some of the worst gerrymanders in the country in 2012 and 2021. Instead of creating a truly independent redistricting commission, the bill continues to require legislative approval for any map. The bill would create a “legislative advisory commission” composed of four individuals appointed by legislative leadership in each chamber from both parties, and a fifth person chosen by the first four. This group, hand-picked by the legislature, would directly advise the LRB in map drafts. Once the LRB and advisory commission complete draft maps, the legislature as a whole continues to have the power to approve or reject them, and to provide feedback.

Moreover, the bill’s reference to partisan intent is weak and easy to circumvent. The bill prevents the LRB–an already nonpartisan body–from considering partisan data when it draws the map, but also requires that the LRB redraw plans in response to the legislature’s feedback. No rules are set for what the legislature can request. This exception undermines the entire clause: all the legislature must do is request the LRB redraw districts in a manner that benefits them, and the bill lacks any meaningful limits on partisan gerrymandering by the legislature. In short, AB 415’s weak references to partisan favoritism are unlikely to stop Republicans from gerrymandering.

AB 415 Has Substandard Mapping Criteria

AB 415 does not have sufficient criteria to protect against gerrymanders. In some instances, the criteria merely articulates redistricting guidelines that are already being used. For example, AB 415 requires keeping districts under 1% population deviation, which the existing map already does. In other instances, where the criteria for maps in the bill departs from existing criteria, it makes the criteria worse, rather than better. For example, the criteria defines “contiguity” broadly, to include districts “containing detached portions of a municipality,” which appears to be an attempt to allow an existing shortcoming in the map to remain.

Of particular concern is the bill’s emphasis that maps should avoid splitting municipalities. In other states with similar criteria, such as Ohio, this criterion has been aggressively misused by partisan map-drawers to preserve political gerrymanders.

Demonstrative Map Illustrates the Shortcomings of the Proposed Reform
In short, the criteria identified in AB 415 would not prevent a gerrymandered map. The hypothetical demonstrative map appended below (Demonstrative Map A), which was drawn to conform with AB 415’s mapping criteria, shows just that. Some additional notes on this map:

• Demonstrative Map A would have elected President Biden in only 40 of its 99 districts in 2020, despite President Biden winning the state.
• Based on the 2020 Presidential election results, Demonstrative Map A has the same number of strong Democratic seats (34 out of 99) as the current gerrymandered state house map.
• The efficiency gap of Demonstrative Map A is -12.78, indicating significant bias in favor of Republicans — far from ensuring Wisconsinites can elect a representative legislature.

On its face, Demonstrative Map A complies with AB 415’s criteria yet maintains the Republican gerrymander — illustrating the shortcomings of the Republicans’ proposed reform.

AB 415 Lacks Any Fallback Measures in the Event the Legislature Fails to Pass Maps

While the bill requires at least one member from both parties to support a map in order for it to pass, there is no procedure for what happens if a map fails to pass — a common problem that Wisconsin just experienced, when Governor Evers, a Democrat, vetoed the Republican legislature’s proposed map in 2021.

Conclusion

The Republicans’ proposed reform fails to provide meaningful limits on partisan gerrymandering. It keeps the legislature in control, lacks meaningful criteria, and fails to have any backup procedures. This reform should be understood for what it is: a last-ditch effort by a legislature afraid of being held accountable.

Demonstrative Map A
This illustrative map, drawn to comply with AB 415’s mapping criteria, keeps the existing Republican gerrymander, illustrating the bill’s shortcomings.